FORECAST OF EVOLUTION OF ICT SECTOR IN KHANTY-MANSI AUTONOMOUS AREA – YUGRA

Abstract

: The research paper "Forecast of Evolution of the ICT Sector in Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area – Yugra" further develops the subject of "Forecasting the prevailing trends in the development of the communications and ICT sectors in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area – Yugra until 2030". Both papers are part of the research project "Long-Term Forecasting of the Economic Evolution of a Resource-Producing Region Based on the Past Trends and Patterns of the Institutional Environment (Using the Example of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area – Yugra)". The practical relevance of the present work is associated with the development of a mathematical model describing the evolution of the information and communications technology sector in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area – Yugra. The results will be used for further research into the economic evolution of a resourceproducing region using the example of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area – Yugra. The theoretical significance of the study lies in the development of an approach to forecasting the evolution of the ICT sector in a region. The relevance of this research is underscored by the existing demand for this kind of study from regional authorities, which need it to make socioeconomic forecasts. A formalized method based on regression and correlation analysis was used. The evidence bases for our analysis comprised data from the "Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic Indicators" for 2005-2015 released by the Federal State Statistics Service. The principal output of this analysis is the development of an adequate regression model of the evolution of the ICT sector for the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area – Yugra with a mean absolute error of 7.5%. The maximum absolute forecast error equals 15.1% and its minimum level is 2.6%. The forecasts for the ICT sector were developed under three scenarios of regional development until 2028. The baseline scenario projects an average growth rate of spending on ICT at approximately 5%, which exceeds the official inflation projections of 2-4% for the period. Under the worst-case scenario, the annual average rate of 2.7% is projected, close to the expected inflation. According to modeling results, the best-case scenario projects the average growth rate at 8%, which is twice the inflation rate.